Tottenham vs Arsenal
Tottenham welcome Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for this London Derby early Friday morning Beijing time. The stakes are ultra-high here as both teams have a genuine chance of making it to the top4 in the best league in the world! This would earn them a ticket for the Champions League group stage for next season. This is something that both teams have aim to but have failed to achieve recently. Tottenham did play in the final 2019 but were defeated by Liverpool. Arsenal currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with 66 points in the bank and have a goal difference of 56:42. Tottenham grabbed 62 points and have a better goal difference – 60:40. Both teams have just three more matches left this season which means that Tottenham probably need to win this match.. As a result, they will surely take risk if the if they are trailing – or the score is level – in the second half. This decreases the probability of a draw and increases the chance of my fans and I winning yet another bet! The probability is 54%.
I rate Tottenham in the 4th place in my power ratings that illustrate the teams’ pure class - Arsenal are 5th, but only marginally better than another club from London, West Ham. In the current situation – Arsenal have a few very important players missing – the hosts are in my opinion clearly the stronger team and we have chance to once again place a bet with high excepted value! Midfielder Thomas Partey has a muscle injury and Kieran Tierney has a knee injury. Defender Ben White has been suffering from a thigh injury and his situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview. Nevertheless, he will probably not be at his best.. The hosts are missing Doherty, Reguilion, Skipp and Tanganga. I want to mention a few Arsenal’s players in particular for my growing fan-base to follow. Egyptian midfielder Elneny has been very disappointing in my opinion! Moreover, if unreliable Portuguese defender Nuno Tavares enters the pitch – Arsenal fans should be very worried! Tottenham have world-class offensive talent in South Korean Heung-Min Son and we all know the English national team forward, deadly goal-scorer Harry Kane! Japanese defender Takehiro Tomiyasu is a good player and has a key role in trying to stop Tottenham here. Eddie Nketiah,22, has scored a few somewhat lucky goals lately but is far from a top-striker for this league.
Arsenal have been very lucky this season in the Premier League and have scored seven points more than they would have earned in terms of expected points, one of the key statistics used by professional sports bettors. In their most recent match at home Arsenal took a 2-1 win over Leeds - who are currently in the 18th place (third-last). Leeds’s defender Luke Ayling,30, took an extremely stupid red card already in the 27th minute – subsequently more or less destroying Leeds’s chances.. They did, however, score in the second half to make it 2-1 and even had a chance to get a draw. Arsenal did not convince me despite the clear possession and expected goals statistic (2.11- 1.02). Before this the visitors narrowly beat West Ham away from home 2-1. The hosts, however, had 56% ball possession and recorded more completed passes and dangerous attacks. Overall, the match was very balanced. We must realize, though, that Arsenal faced West Ham at an ideal time. Indeed, West Ham had just played a grueling first leg of UEFA Europe League semifinals match against German Eintracht Frankfurt and had their focus fully on the second leg. The betting market, of course, was aware of this and estimated Arsenal having a 53% chance of winning. Before this they beat Man United, who my fans already know are – taking into account their resources- simply rubbish this season, especially away from home. Even so, the match was a balanced one and the 3-1 final score is very misleading! Arsenal had 55% ball possession, but both teams had 14 scoring attempts and ManU recorded more dangerous attacks – 42-39. Arsenal, however, did create a little more in expected goals - 2.33-2.16. The four wins in a row have led to a serious over-valuation on the betting market.
Tottenham, on the other hand, are genuinely in fine form and have potential for even better performances, especially in terms of offensive structure. They did play a bad match away from home on the 23rd of April though against a surprisingly dangerous team Brentford. It was a goalless draw, but Tottenham were very poor offensively creating only 0.37 in expected goals. It is hard to tell what was wrong with them in that very day.. They somehow did not seem to be 100% ready mentally for the match. They received a lot of criticism for this lame performance in the media and from their fans but as a professional football bettor for over 21 years now I know that we should not react too much on a single match – no matter if it was exceptionally good or bad! After that they crushed a decent team Leicester 3-1 at home and only allowed the visitors 0.19 in expected goals. A fine performance! Last Saturday they played another impressive match against the second-best team in the world, Liverpool. Legendary Italian manager Antonio Conte, rather unsurprisingly, chose a very defensive strategy for this match and Tottenham succeed almost perfectly! Conte is indeed an excellent manager - a lot better than Arsenal's Arteta - and knew how to play against a stronger opponent at Anfield in front of ecstatic fans. With a hint of luck, Tottenham could even have won! Liverpool did not get too may good scoring chances – which is rare for the Champions League finalists. Liverpool controlled the ball for most of the time but Tottenham were very dangerous on the counterattacks and did, in fact create more in expected goals – 1.02-1.08. The betting market should respect Tottenham more..
阿森纳在本赛季的英超联赛中非常幸运，他们的得分比预期得分高出了7分，这是职业体育投注者使用的关键数据之一。在最近的一场主场比赛中，阿森纳2-1战胜了利兹联，后者目前排名第18(倒数第三)。利兹联30岁的后卫卢克·艾林在第27分钟就被出示了一张极其愚蠢的红牌——随后或多或少地毁掉了利兹联的机会。然而，他们在下半场进球将比分改写为2:1，甚至有机会扳平比分。阿森纳并没有说服我，尽管控球很好，进球数据也很理想(2.11- 1.02)。在此之前客队在主场以2:1险胜西汉姆。然而主队的控球率为56%，并记录了更多完整的传球和危险的进攻。总的来说，比赛是非常平衡的。我们必须意识到，阿森纳在一个理想的时间面对西汉姆。事实上，西汉姆联队刚刚打完了欧冠半决赛第一回合对阵德国法兰克福队的艰苦比赛，他们把全部精力放在了第二回合的比赛上。当然，*市场知道这一点，并估计阿森纳有53%的机会获胜。在此之前，他们击败了曼联，我的球迷已经知道，考虑到他们的资源，曼联本赛季简直就是垃圾，尤其是客场。尽管如此，这场比赛是一场平衡的比赛，3-1的最终比分是非常误导人的!阿森纳有55%的控球率，但两队都有14次得分尝试，ManU记录了更多的危险进攻——42-39。阿森纳，然而，创造了更多的预期进球- 2.33-2.16。连续四场胜利导致*市场估值严重过高。